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20 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • OCTOBER 2014 EYE ON DESIGN L loyd’s Register recently con- ducted a survey that indicated that the majority of major ports around the world are either planning for, or are anticipating, the wi- descale development of LNG bunkering. One of the locations is the Port of Rot- terdam, which is a busy port with dense traffi c on the various waterways consist- ing of both maritime and inland vessels. During the analysis, the probability of ship collisions was assessed and then the consequences were identifi ed. The fi rst phase of the study investigated the prob- ability of a collision using the Safety Assessment Models for Shipping and Offshore in the North Sea (SAMSON), which was developed by MARIN. Input for this model included ship movements, ship characteristics and the layout of the terminal. For the second phase of the study, the Maritime Collision Model (MARCOL) was used. A Quantitative Risk Analysis calls for a damage calculation tool such as MARCOL because it only requires a handful of parameters of the many ships involved in collision events. The MAR- COL tool automatically models the col- lision events and rapidly calculates the penetration area in the cargo tank of the stricken vessel. For this study, more than 100,000 collision events were calculated by MARIN’s high throughput comput- ing grid. Results of the study clearly showed the added value of combining SAMSON and MARCOL, over simplifi ed models. For instance, the results demonstrated that the relationship between the kinetic energy of the striking vessels and the probability of penetration of the cargo tanks was actually low. Geometrical properties of the striking vessel, such as the freeboard and the bow shape, deter- mine the outcome of a collision event to a much larger extent. The results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis are therefore helpful when considering risk-mitigat- ing measures such as speed reduction for a specifi c marine group. LNG Terminals Quantitative Risk Analysis for LNG Terminals WIM LAFEBER The Author Wim Lafeber is Researcher Hydro-struc- tural Services at the Trials & Monitoring Department of MARIN, the Maritime Re- search Institute Netherlands. e: w.lafeber@marin.nl MARIN Conducts Quantitative Risk Analysis for moored, small-scale LNG carriers and LNG barges for a Rotterdam LNG terminal. Widescale Development of LNG Bunkering is Expected MR #10 (18-25).indd 20 10/1/2014 9:35:01 AM
