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54 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • JUNE 2014 project investment decision. We have been making an annual ? ve year fore- cast since the mid-1990s. Our forecast in 2014 anticipates orders for 104 to 150 production ? oaters between 2014 -2018. This is an average of approximately 20 to 30 production ? oater orders annually. As indicated below, the most likely fore- cast of orders is 25 to 30% greater than actual orders over previous ? ve year pe- riods. How does this forecast correspond with events over the past ? ve months? Did we get it right so far? Since January 2014 there have been or- ders for seven production ? oaters – ? ive FPSOs, one gas/condensate production barge and one LNG regas barge. The ? ve-month order pace equates to ~17 units on an annualized basis. So at the moment our forecast is higher than actu- al experience. Looking forward through the remainder of the year, at least a doz- en of the production ? oaters listed ap- pear ready to go to contract by the end of 2014. This would bring the 2014 orders to within the forecast range, though at the lower end of the forecast range. But near term underlying market con- ditions have been trending a bit south. Energy companies have been reducing Capex budgets and unconventional oil projects are drawing investment resourc- es from deepwater. This could delay some investment decisions and dampen production ? oater contracts over the next 6 to 12 months. THE 2014 YEARBOOK: STATISTICS Breakdown of Planned Projects by Location of Field (As of June 1, 2014) Project Location # of Projects Africa 48 Brazil 44 SE Asia 38 GOM 22 No. Europe 22 Aust/NZ 16 Medit 10 SW Asia 10 Other 14 Total 224 BY JIM MCCAUL, IMA IMA provides market analysis and stra- tegic planning advice in the marine and offshore sectors. Over 40 years we have performed more than 350 business con- sulting assignments for 170+ clients in 40+ countries. We have assisted numer- ous shipbuilders, ship repair yards and manufacturers in forming a a plan of action to penetrate the offshore market. Our assignments have included advice on acquiring an FPSO contractor, form- ing an alliance to bid for large FPSO contracts, satisfying local content re- quirements and targeting unmet require- ments through technology development. t: 1 202 333 8501 / e: imaassoc@msn. com / w: www.imastudies.com MR #6 (50-57).indd 54 6/9/2014 11:26:00 AM
