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www.marinelink.com 13 Orders in 2013 Orders for 22 production fl oaters with a total contract value of ~$17 bil- lion were placed in 2013. The orders include 11 FPSOs, 2 TLPs, 1 Spar, 1 Barge, 6 FSRUs and 1 MOPU. A 12th FPSO (Rosebank) was ordered but the contract was suspended pending re- view. Details for orders in 2013 are available at www.imastudies.com. The market seemed to hit resistance in 2013. FPSO orders in particular were relatively weak. Over the past ten years an average of 13.6 FPSOs have been ordered annually. Only 11 FPSO con- tracts were placed in 2013. Resistance seems to be in the supply chain. Construction costs have been increas- ing, local content targets have been cre- ating bottlenecks and access to fi nanc- ing has been constrained. Oil company investment resources also have been shifting to shale oil and gas project de- velopment. We see supply chain resistance and competition for investment resources from shale oil/gas projects continuing over the near term. Our new fi ve year forecast of production fl oater orders re- fl ects this – and our forecast of orders between 2014 and 2018 is down signifi - cantly as a result. Backlog of Planned Floater Projects 234 fl oating production projects are in various stages of planning as of begin- ning January. Of these, around 55% involve an FPSO, 15% another type oil/gas production fl oater, 25% lique- faction or regasifi cation fl oater and 5% storage/offl oading fl oater. This large backlog of projects in the planning cycle is further indication that project investment opportunity is not the cause of the recent lethargic order pace. There are plenty of fl oater projects at or near the fi nal investment decision stage. The decision to move to the con- tracting stage has been slowed by sup- ply chain resistance and better uses of investment resources. Where Planned Projects are Located Brazil and Africa are the major loca- tions of fl oating production projects in the visible planning stage. We are tracking 50 projects in each region – 43% of the visible planned fl oating pro- duction projects worldwide. Brazil clearly leads in terms of produc- tion fl oater requirements – as several Brazilian projects will require multiple production units. Libra could require 12 production units, Jupiter 6 units, Lula 2+ units. When these large projects are taken into account, Brazil represents almost 30% of visible fl oating production sys- tem orders in the planning stage. The Author IMA provides market analysis and stra- tegic planning advice in the marine and offshore sectors. Over 40 years we have performed more than 350 business consulting assignments for 170+ clients in 40+ countries. We have assisted nu- merous shipbuilders, ship repair yards and manufacturers in forming a a plan of action to penetrate the offshore mar- ket. Our assignments have included advice on acquiring an FPSO contrac- tor, forming an alliance to bid for large FPSO contracts, satisfying local content requirements and targeting unmet re- quirements through technology develop- ment. Tel: 1 202 333 8501 e: imaassoc@msn.com www.imastudies.com MR #1 (10-17).indd 13 1/7/2014 12:22:47 PM
