View non-flash version
attempt to try and reflect this situation in our forecasts. Instead we focus on attempting to indicate the value of the new LNG facilities that come into use each year. The overall trend is one of strong mar- ket growth, and global Capex on LNG developments over the 2000-2009 peri- od is expected to total over $67 billion - almost three times the amount spent over the previous five-year period. LNG Export Facilities Over the 2000-2004 period the data indicate that 28.5 mmtpa of liquefaction capacity was brought onstream by new LNG export facilities, and that the capi- tal expenditure associated with con- structing these facilities (excluding upstream costs, but including all termi- nal costs — plant, storage, marine facilites, etc.) totaled some $7.7 billion. For the 2005-2009 period it is forecast that new liquefaction facilities coming onstream will lead to a massive increase in global LNG output capacity, requiring Capital Expenditure of over $30 billion. LNG Carriers Activity in the newbuild LNG carrier market is dominated by shipyards in Asia, the region having constructed nearly all of the LNG carriers that entered service between 2000 and 2004. Over the next five years we anticipate that over 120 new carriers will be con- structed. Capital expenditure associated with these new vessels is forecast to be nearly $22 billion. Analysis of our data indicates that the average price of LNG vessels delivered over the previous five-year period fell from over $220 million to as low as $162 million in 2002. The fall in price over this period was largely due to intense competition between shipyards in the Far East, Korean shipyards in par- ticular. Although vessel demand is expected to be strong over the period to 2009, the market is expected to remain competitive, with the entrance of Chinese yards into the market a point of particular interest. We therefore expect prices to remain at the current, histori- cally low, levels. LNG Import Terminals A significant growth in spending is also forecast for import terminals. Over the 2000-2004 period an estimated $7 billion was spent on new LNG import and regasification facilities. Global additions to import capacity over the forecast period are expected to result in the construction of as many as 40 regasi- fication terminals. An estimated Capex of $14.5 billion will be required to bring this additional capacity online. The LNG industry is renowned for its diligent standards and has an excellent safety record, albeit not entirely without incident. However, public perception about the risks of LNG often appears to be misconceived and as a result local opposition to new facilities is common, and perhaps now more vigorous given the continuing worries over terrorism. This seems to be a particular problem in North America and Western Europe. The impact of these difficulties may well be that more operators choose to locate import facilities offshore. The World LNG & GTL Database currently lists seven offshore LNG receiving ter- minal prospects for the 2005-2009 peri- od, including ChevronTexaco's 'Port Pelican', Woodside and Crystal Energy's 'Crystal Clearwater', Shells 'Gulf Landing' and Excelerate Energy's 'Energy Bridge' developments, all of which are located in the Gulf of Mexico, along with BHP Billiton's 'Cabrillo Port' near California, and ChevronTexaco's "Puerto Coronado" development off- shore Tijuana in Baja California, Mexico. 3 H I P O W N E R S # H A R T E R E R S 3 H I P P E R S " A N K S 0 ) # L U B S ( U L L 5 N D E R W R I T E R S 4 R A D I N G # O M P A N I E S ' O V E R N M E N T S 4 ( % 0 / 7 % 2 / & 0 ! 2 4 . % 2 3 ( ) 0 , E G A L 3 E R V I C E S F O R ' L O B A L " U S I N E S S ( E A L Y " A I L L I E , , 0 " R O A D W A Y . E W 9 O R K . 9 4 & ( E A L Y " A I L L I E , , 0 4 H E , O C K " U I L D I N G - A R S H A L L 3 T R E E T 3 U I T E 3 O U T H . O R W A L K # 4 4 & ( E A L Y " A I L L I E 3 U I T E $ I N A ( O U S E 2 U T T O N J E E # E N T R E $ U D D E L L 3 T R E E T # E N T R A L ( O N G + O N G 4 & W W W H E A L Y C O M . % 7 9 / 2 + . % 7 * % 2 3 % 9 ( / . ' + / . ' # / . . % # 4 ) # 5 4 Offshore Technology Annual 26 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News Circle 248 on Reader Service Card MR APRIL 2005 #4 (25-32).qxd 4/1/2005 3:55 PM Page 26
