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and Aframax on the latter. The vessels can also benefit from strong Aframax rates which may encourage owners to "double up" cargoes. In recent years, West African crudes have started to move into Asia meeting refiners' requirements there, although this trade is also often occupied by VLCCs. The resumption of Iraqi exports has also been beneficial to this market. In the last two years demand growth has been impres- sive — 3.4 percent in 1997 and 4.6 percent in 1996. With a very modest level of Suezmax deliveries being made through 1995-97 (16 vessels in all) and deletions running ahead (22 vessels), the market has clearly tightened. However although rates doubled in 1996 from 1994 levels, in 1997 they generally underwent a period of consolida- tion, perhaps reflecting the nascent surplus of tonnage. Delivery levels in 1998 and 1999 are scheduled at twice the demoli- Figure 2 Tanker time charter earnings ($'000/day) 3-month moving average AG- AG- W.Afr- Med- Car- Japan S.Korea Car/USES Med USES 200-300 200-300 100-160 70-100 25-35 24.1 18.4 18.1 13.1 16.3 22.8 17.15 16.8 12.85 17.65 21.87 17.47 16.8 12.3 17.2 19.6 16.47 15.83 11.93 15.43 18.2 15.43 15.93 11.8 14.13 19.3 15.77 15.47 12.83 13.33 24.3 19.8 17.67 14.33 14.13 29.47 24.67 18.3 15.8 13.37 31.7 25.8 19.13 15.63 12.43 28.37 22.3 17.43 14.13 11.6 27 21.77 17.07 11.93 12.13 26.03 21.93 17.43 11.13 14.03 28 23.93 18.63 12.33 17.47 29.57 24.67 19.63 17.37 17.27 31.27 26.67 20.2 19.33 17.47 29.1 24.47 20.07 20.23 16.27 26.8 22.5 20.47 17.83 16.17 28.13 23.6 20.47 18.77 14.17 32.63 28.57 20.5 18.07 11.53 34.83 30.63 19.97 16.6 10.6 31.5 26.73 18.8 13.9 10.1 27.77 23.2 18.87 12.77 10.83 26.2 22.43 19.33 12.93 10.33 26.47 23.07 19.53 13.6 11.6 28.9 25.67 20.03 15.33 13.5 29.83 26.17 20.83 17 16.33 31.07 28.27 24 18.4 17.4 29.57 26.33 24.87 18.63 16.93 30.03 26.97 25.3 18.03 15.9 32.2 28.8 23.6 18.6 13.47 36.77 33.27 22.43 18.53 12.33 42.07 38 22.23 18.2 11.33 44.43 39.57 23.67 17.4 11.53 48.43 43.33 24.6 16.67 9.93 46.17 40.8 25.47 16.37 9.43 42.17 36.27 26.33 15.23 10.53 34.23 28.83 28.07 14.97 10.5 31.6 27.07 26.07 14.33 9.67 33.63 30.67 25.23 14.07 8.57 35.63 33.57 22.17 13.4 9.3 June, 1998 "Do the right thing, the first time, on time, all the time ... It's the Bollinger WE'VE I.OI THE YARD FOR YOU P.O. Box 250 • 8365 Highway 308 South Lockport, LA 70374 Phone: 504/532-2554 • Fax: 504/532/7225 http://www.bollingershipyards.com BROWN WATER OR BLUE LOCKPORT 504/532-2554 LAROSE 504/693-7002 F0URCH0N 504/396-2366 HARVEY 504/340-0621 ALGIERS 504/362-7960 MATHEWS 504/532-2512 MORGAN CITY Bollinger Bollinger Morgan City Marine Fabricators 504/631-3600 504/631-5300 Now hiring in all shipyard crafts. Circle 240 on Reader Service Card 43 Shipbuilding, conversion, repair 20 floating drydocks, 6000 ton capacity Hopper and tank barge construction ISO 9001 certified State of the art propeller, electrical and machine shop facilities Integrated logistical support system Eight gulf coast and Mississippi River locations commitment. - tion rates of recent years. Conse- quently, much will rely on the employ- ment patterns of these vessels. Given modest increases in crude output from Africa, the North Sea, and sustained Iraqi movements into the Mediterranean, demand should remain steady. And in the long term, the forecast increase in crude exports into the Black Sea could provide an additional boost to demand. Rates in 1998 and 1999 could well be influenced by the fortunes of the Aframax and VLCC sectors, and as a consequence we would take the middle ground and look optimistically for consolidation around 1997 levels. VLCC The apparent high profile of the VLCC sector may reflect the