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THE EXPANDING CRUISE INDUSTRY 10 MILLION PASSENGERS PER Despite the recent drop in pas- senger bookings, some industry ana- lysts are predicting that by the year 2000, more than 10 million passen- gers will take cruises annually. These projections are based on a growth level of 10 percent per year. Present cruise passenger levels stand at 3.7 million per year. Many cruise lines are still bullish on the market and believe that the industry is only stopping for a breath before it prepares for anoth- er strong run. Cruise Lines International Asso- ciation (CLIA), a trade association representing 36 cruise lines, esti- mates that some 65 million people are potential cruise-takers. Over half that number—some 38 mil- lion—have indicated a definite or probable interest in taking a cruise in the next five years, translating into revenue potential of up to $80 billion. CLIA reports that 17 new or re- furbished vessels, with about 11,000 passenger berths were added during 1990. With these new cruise ships, there now is a total fleet of 120 ves- sels with 84,000 berths serving the North American market. In 1991, at least nine new or sub- stantially refurbished cruise ships are scheduled for service, adding nearly 8,000 new berths and genera- ing almost a half-million more pas- sengers. This equation alone poten- tially creates more than a 10 percent increase in passenger carryings per year. The association projects the rate of growth in new berth capacity over the next five years as only 7.6 per- cent, compared with an average 10 percent growth rate in passenger bookings over the last five years. Any overcapacity might be eased by the late delivery of some vessels, but bookings on new spectacular megaton ships will also likely dis- place sales for older vessels. As lines with older vessels fight harder to survive a consolidation of market share, new entrants in the $5 billion a year North American market will face increased competi- tion and perhaps more market con- solidation. The industry's greatest concern in the short term, however, is con- sumer spending cuts due to the U.S. economic recession. A spokesman for Carnival Cruise Lines of Miami suggested that customers who nor- mally would book premium cruises are expected to opt for less expen- sive packages in the face of the U.S. economic recession. One reason for optimism in the passenger ship industry is that, more and more, the traveling public is realizing that cruises provide an excellent value and vacation alter- native. And cruise lines believe that this increased consumer awareness will fuel continued interest in and acceptance of cruise vacations. Changing consumer attitudes also play a role in CLIA's 1991 outlook. Vacations have become a necessity, not a frill. In tough economic times, consumers will choose the best value for the money, and the cruise indus- try has successfully positioned itself at the top of the value vacation cate- gory. The "all-inclusivity" of a cruise vacation means that cruise passen- gers known in advance what their vacation will cost and can plan ac- cordingly. Furthermore, the cruise industry is also optimistic that its wide vari- ety of cruises to choose from—from ultra-luxury to economy—priced, from long duration to short week- end jaunts of two, three or four days—will also attract new custom- ers. PASSENGER VESSEL CONSTRUCTION WORLDWIDE (2,900 gross tons and above) BUILDER Vessel TYPE GRT OWNER DELIVERY ASTILLEROS ESPANOLES S.A., Madrid, Spain Princesse Ragnhild' RO/RO ferry 16,608 FVS Jahre Une Invest A/S —192 (2) N/A Cruise N/A Naviera Dosmares S.A. — Vivamar Cruis 6,517 Hoteles Marinos 4/92 BRODOSPLIT, Split, Yugoslavia (2) N/A RO/RO ferry 35,000 Sea-Link AB 91-92 CANTIERE NAVALE FERARRI, La Spezia, Italy (5) N/A Cruise 8,000 Panta Rei Cruises 92-96 N/A Cruis 29,760 Unknown —192 F1NCANTIERI-CANTIERI NAVALIITALIANI, Trieste, Italy Regal Princes Cruise 70,000 P&O Cruises 3/91 (3) N/A Cruis 50,000 Carnival Cruise Lines 92-94 (2) N/A Cruise 50,000 Costa Crociere 91 N/A RO/RO ferry 2,900 Adriatica Di Navigazione -192 GEC ALSTHOM-CHANTIERS DE L'ATLANTIQUE, St. Nazaire, France Monarch of the Seas Cruise 73,400 Royal Caribbean Cruise 12/91 Majesty of the Seas Cruise 73,400 Royal Caribbean Cruise 6/92 (2) N/A Cruis 40,000 Kloster Cruise Line 12/92-6/93 ISHIKAWAJIMA-HARIMA INDUSTRIES, Tokyo, Japan N/A RO/RO ferry 19,000 Shin-Nipponkai Ferry Co. 9/91 T. MARIOTTI, Genoa, Italy ex-Alexandra1 Cruise N/A Costa Crociere 91 MASA-YARDS, INC., Helsinki, Finland Ecstasy Cruise 70,000 Carnival Cruise Lines 4/91 N/A RO/RO ferry 50,000 Johnson Line 6/91 N/A RO/RO ferry 27,000 Britanny Ferries —192 MEYER WERFT, Papenburg, Germany Zenith Cruise 45,000 Chandris Celebrity -192 N/A RO/RO ferry N/A Rederi AB Slite -192 MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD., Tokyo, Japan Asuka Cruise 27,000 N/A 10/91 NUOVI CANTIERI APUANIA, S.P.A., Marina di Carrara, Italy Renaissance VII Cruise 3,500 Yachtship 3/91 Renaissance VIII Cruise 3,500 Yachtship 6/91 N/A Cruis 31,000 Inter Ocean Italiana 12/92 (2) N/A Ferry N/A Grimaldi Compagnia Di Navigazione - BUILDER Vessel TYPE GRT OWNER DELIVERY RAUMA YARDS OV, Rauma, Finland Society Adventurer Cruise 1,300 dwt Discoverer Reederei 6/91 N/A Cruise 1,300 dwt Discoverer Reederei 6/92 SSC Radisson Diamond Cruise 18,400 Diamond Cruises 5/92 N/A Cruise 18,400 Diamond Cruises 4/93 N/A Ferry 25,000 Effjohn International —192 N/A RO/RO ferry 28,000 Brittany Ferries -192 SCHICHAU SEEBECKWERFT AG, Bremerhaven, Germany (2) N/A RO/RO ferry 22,000 P&O European Ferries 6/92-12/92 N/A Cruise 40,000 Kloster Cruises 2/9 (2) N/A RO/RO ferry 30,000 P&O European Ferries 9/91 SOCIETA ESCERCIZIO CANTIERI, Viareggio, Italy (2) N/A Cruise 7,500 N/A Cruise 9,500 Colmar Sana Eur. SpA 91-92 -/91 SOUTHWEST MARINE, INC., San Diego, California, U.S.A. Viking Serenade' Cruise 26,747 Royal Caribbean 4/91 STOCZNIA GDANSK IM. LENINA, Gdansk, Poland (3) N/A RO/RO ferry 20.000 Fincarriers AB 93 TURKIYE GEMI SANAYO A.S., Istanbul, Turkey (2) N/A Ferry 5,000 Turkiye Denizcilik Isletmeleri —/91 ULSTEIN HATLO, Ulsteinvlk, Norway N/A RO/RO ferry 28,000 Brittany Ferries -192 UNION NAVAL DE LEV ANTE S.A., Valencia, Spain Commodore 1 Cruise 19,000 Commodore II Cruise 19,000 Effjohn International Effjohn International 92 93 VANCOUVER SHIPYARDS, Vancouver, B.C., Canada (2) N/A RO/RO ferry 3,000 B.C. Ferry Corp. 6-12/91 VERSATILE PACIFIC SHIPYARDS, Vancouver, B.C., Canada N/A RO/RO ferry 10,000 B.C. Ferry Corp. 2/93 Footnote: 1. Conversion. Compiled by Maritime Reporter Stall 24 Maritime Reporter/Engineering News
