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'Ship Optinomics" SNAME Annual Spring Meeting To Be Held In Williamsburg The annual Spring Meeting of The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers will be held in Colonial Williamsburg, Wil- liamsburg, Va., May 24-27, 1972. Eight techni- cal papers by leaders in the marine field will be presented in the Williamsburg Lodge. The theme of the meeting, hosted by the Society's Hampton Roads Section, is "Ship Optinomics." The papers to be presented on Thursday, May 25, are: "Ship 'System Economics—Less the Ship" by John J. Nachtsheim; "Trade Forecasting" by John F. Wing and John F. Hillman; "Increasing the Productivity of U.S. Shipping" by James R. McCaul, Robert B. Zu- baly, and Edward V. Lewis; "Optimizing Containerships and Their Terminals" by Stian Erichsen, and "Factors Contributing to the Increased Cost of Naval Ships" by James A. Konouck and C. Leonard Willis. The following papers are to be presented on Friday, May 26: "System Safety Analysis Techniques as Applied to Shipboard Systems" by R.A. Duregger, E. Leon, and J.R. Sample; "Nuclear Maritime—An Economic Revival" by R.W. Dickinson, S.H. Esleeck, and J.E. Lemon, and "Progressive Fire Protection" by D.F. Sheehan. The social events from 2:30 p.m. on Wednes- day, May 24, include the showing of the movie "Story of a Patriot" at the Conference Center Auditorium and, at 5:30 p.m., the dedication of the William Francis Gi'bbs Collection at Mariners Museum, followed by a social hour. On Thursday, May 25, there will be a ladies' tour of Williamsburg in the forenoon, followed by a luncheon for the members and their la- dies, with an address by Paul Buchanan, di- rector of architectural research at Williams- burg, and in the evening the Society's President's Reception will be held. On Friday, May 26, there will be a tour of Carter's Grove for the ladies, a men's luncheon, a harbor cruise in the afternoon for the members and their ladies, and in the evening, a dinner-dance which will conclude the formal program for the Society's 1972 Spring Meeting. On Satur- day, May 27, a tour of the Newport News Shipyard is planned for all who wish to take advantage of being in the area to see the fa- cilities. Also occurring during the Spring Meeting will be special meetings of the Society's steer- ing committee on technical and research, ship production committee, and committee on Sections. Technical Papers 1. "Ship System Economics—Less the Ship" by John J. Nachtsheim. Synopsis—The ship itself accounts for only about 25 percent of the total cost of transport- ing many products in international trade, with inland transportation and port costs account- ing for the remainder. This paper focuses attention on the non-ship aspects of the physi- cal distribution problem which, in some cases, have not been considered by ship designers. Specifically, the paper investigates total system modeling and simulation; commodity form change; cargo origin and destination, fore- casts and hindcasts; documentation and data management; neo-bulk movements, and related matters. 2. "Trade Forecasting" by John F. Wing and John F. Hillman. Synopsis—This paper presents basic prin- ciples for the forecasting of ocean trade move- ments. These methods include trend extra- polation, in-depth economic analysis, input- output analysis, and methods based primarily on the judgment of experts. The strengths and weaknesses of each in terms of accuracy, cost, time, and data required are discussed and data sources for the preparation of trade forecasts are given. Two in-depth samples are presented: 25-year forecasts of U.S. wheat ex- ports, and imports of bauxite and alumina. These forecasts were used for fleet planning requirements. 3. "Increasing the Productivity of U.S. Shipping" by James R. McCaul, Robert B. Zubaly, and Edward V. Lewis. Synopsis—This paper provides a broad view of the subject of productivity in overseas trans- portation systems, with particular emphasis on directions in which productivity can be improved. It is recognized that oceangoing vessels are only one of the elements in over- seas transportation systems and that costs must be assessed on a system-wide basis. Ref- erences are made to analyses carried out and techniques developed at the Center for Mari- time Studies in the course of a project for the Maritime Administration ('Contract MA- 4956); the project was a joint effort by the National Maritime Research Center at Kings Point and the Center for Maritime Studies at Webb Institute of Naval Architecture. 4. "Optimizing Containerships and Their Terminals" by Stian Erichsen. Synopsis — Recognizing that the principal subsystems of an ocean transportation system are land transport, port interface, and sea transport, in the movement of unitized cargo the port interface and sea transport subsystems can be unitized and optimized without danger of sub-optimizing the entire transportation system. In this paper, the economic and tech- nical relations for containerships and their terminals are investigated and optimum com- binations of ships and port installations are established. 5. "Factors Contributing to the Increased Cost of Naval Ships" by James A. Konouck and C. Leonard Willis. Synopsis—This paper presents a survey of the various factors which have had an impact on the increased cost of naval ships. Factors which are specifically discussed include: in- creased performance requirements and tech- nical complexity; increased software and ad- ministrative requirements; inflation, and the market in general. 6. "System Safety Analysis Techniques as Applied to Shipboard Systems" by R.A. Du- regger, E. Leon, and J.R. Sample. Synopsis—The current Navy emphasis on system safety considerations during the design phases of shipboard systems is discussed. Sys- tem safety requirements are reviewed, their use by the marine industry examined, and ob- jectives of system safety analyses as related to marine systems are considered. This is followed by a description of the various types of safety analyses that may be applied to ship- board systems. The preliminary hazard, fault tree, and fault hazard analysis techniques are discussed in depth, and examples of their de- velopment are presented. Lastly, the key ele- ments of the SSN688 Class Submarine System Safety Program are described. 7. "Nuclear Maritime—An Economic Re- vival" by R.W. Dickinson, S.H. Esleeck, and J.E. Lemon. Synopsis—This paper surveys the progress of nuclear ship propulsion from the 1950s, when the N/S Savannah's spreadout uneco- nomical PWR was designed and built for demonstration, to the modern Consolidated Nuclear Steam Generator (CNSG) with its successfully operating prototype aboard the N/S Otto Hahn. The CNSG offers a 120,000- shp capability in the same physical envelope as the 20,000 shp of the N/S Savannah. Accu- mulated nuclear technology and experience, coupled with escalating oil prices and stabi- lized nuclear fuel prices, make the decade of the seventies promising for nuclear propulsion. 8. "Progressive Fire Protection" by D.F. Sheehan. Synopsis—The purposes of this paper are to survey the U.S. 'Coast Guard's fire research activities which have been conducted to sup- port the intent of the regulatory effort. Spe- cifically discussed are research relative to fire extinguishing agents, methods, and systems; also, research regarding construction materials and methods is reviewed. Foreign Construction Costs For LNG Ships Released By MSB The Maritime Subsidy Board has announced that representative foreign shipyard costs for building liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers of a type planned for the United States would be between $64 million and $68 million each. These foreign costs are necessary for deter- mining construction subsidy differentials for building such vessels in U.S. shipyards. According to the MSB, shipyards in France and Norway were used for the comparison of a proposed six-ship building program by El Paso Natural Gas Co. The El Paso project is still tentative and no construction subsidy ap- plication has as yet been filed. However, the ruling by the Federal Power Commission authorizing importation of LNG from Algeria for Distrigas of Boston has evi- dently speeded handling of the El Paso plan by the subsidy board. The board has only one firm application for subsidy to construct LNG carriers. Filed last October by Transportation Techniques Inc. of New York, the proposal calls for three vessels of 120,000-cubic-meter size. The subsidy board announcement of foreign costs for LNG carriers would be for 125,000- cubic-meter ships. Wisconsin Barge To Order 25 Barges From St. Louis Ship Wisconsin Barge Line Inc., Cassville, Wis., has applied to the Maritime Administration for Mortgage insurance on 25 hopper barges it plans for its bulk commodity services on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers. The estimated $3 million worth of barges is expected to be built by the St. Louis Ship Division of Pott Industries. Each barge will have a capacity of 76,660 cubic feet. Texas Transport & Terminal Appoints Henry Schneider Texas Transport & Terminal Co., Inc., In- ternational Trade Mart, New Orleans, La. 70130, ship agents and stevedores, has an- nounced the appointment of Henry J. Schnei- der as general manager, U.S.A., Full Cargo and Tanker Division. Mr. Schneider has been associated with Texas Transport & Terminal Co., Inc., since January 1958, in all phases of vessel operations. April 1, 1972 23
