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EarthRisk Technologies Atmospheric research is a specialty of Scripps. Several years ago, researchers patented analytical algorithms capable of making long-term weather predictions. The process has subsequently been licensed and is seeing a successful com-mercialization at a company called EarthRisk Technologies. EarthRisk is all about weather forecasting, but not the kind of weather seen on the nightly news. Their predictions are the probabilistic distribution of weather risk for a 30-40 day period. The probability that it will be extremely cold or ex- tremely hot within the next Þ ve weeks is critical to many who have a Þ nancial exposure to the price of natural gas. Prices rise and fall with the temperature and clients use EarthRiskÕs data and analytics to get a sense of likely gas prices over the Þ ve- week period that lies ahead. EarthRisk, leveraging the existing data from public sourc- es such as NOAA and others, then applies their proprietary analysis known as TempRisk to massive amounts of data cross-referenced to years of research Þ ndings and produces a scientiÞ cally validated long-range forecast. The TempRisk program processes more than 250 million calculations, using over 380 known weather patterns, and cross-references that to over 20,000 days of actual observed weather conditions across multiple global regions. After all of the calculations, the pro- gram produces a forecast that takes into account historical weather patterns, long-range seasonal temperature variations and current observations to produce what they call a scientiÞ -cally validated probability. The Þ rst stage of the algorithm development process oc- curred at Scripps, the analysis technique was then licensed to EarthRisk. The company built on it adding new data and new levels of analysis. It has taken Þ ve years for the technique to reach its current level of reÞ nement. Steve Bennett, President of EarthRisk, worked at Scripps for three years as the Þ rst Business Development Analyst. He helped develop the original analysis product. While there, he helped put the team together that started MRV and also built the EarthRisk team. Today EarthRiskÕs 20 plus clients sub- scribe to varying levels of information - from a simple report once or twice a week, to 24/7 access to all data, models, and data sources. Clients include the insurance and Þ nancial in- dustries, plus agriculture and energy futures traders. Bennett explains, ÒOther weather forecasts donÕt do what we do. None produce a credible lead longer than 15 days. We have scientiÞ cally validated [forecasts] for up to Þ ve weeks.Ó As for the possibility of going beyond Þ ve weeks, Bennett says his clients would be interested, but itÕs not feasible with the existing methodology. ÒChaos effect takes control,Ó be- yond that. Quad GeometricsWith a profound understanding of the oceans and the at- mosphere, Scripps has a lot to offer companies looking for ways to Þ nd and understand oil and gas deposits deep within the earth. With that same interest in mind, Quad Geomet- rics, LLC, another recent Scripps startup, was cofounded by Mark Zumberge, Ph.D., Research Geophysicist and head of the Gravity Lab at the Institute for Geophysics and Plan- etary Physics, to provide products and services that precisely measure key earth parameters such gravity, sound, pressure and vibration. Quad Geometrics takes technology developed through decades of research in the North Sea and other areas From Academia to Market Instruments used by Quad Geometrics. (Photo credit Scripps Oceanographic Institute) Scripps is a scenic launch point for technology. (Photo credit Scripps Oceanographic Institute) October 201334 MTRMTR #8 (34-49).indd 34MTR #8 (34-49).indd 3411/5/2013 9:26:33 AM11/5/2013 9:26:33 AM
