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Market Report DW forecast that approximately $77b will be spent on subsea vessel operations in Þ eld development, inspection, repair & maintenance (IRM) and sub-sea well intervention between 2012 and 2016. This is an increase of 63% over the preceding Þ ve-year pe- riod. Global vessel demand for these markets is expected to increase 33% on the previous Þ ve-years. Global vessel expenditure grew from $8.7bn in 2007 to over $10bn in 2009 before dipping in 2010. During this period ves- sel contractors were largely protected from the Þ nancial crisis which strongly impacted some other sectors and were able to work off their backlog. Subsea Vessel Operations The latest edition of Douglas-WestwoodÕs World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast considers three main areas of activity: Field Development, IRM and Subsea Well Inter- vention. Field Development: Tasks carried out by vessels which can lift and install off- shore and subsea infrastructure for new developments or con- nect additional subsea equipment to an existing production fa- cility. The Þ eld development market is expected to see strong growth from 2012 onwards with vessel day demand totaling an estimated nearly 150,000 days with $4.2bn of expendi- ture over the forecast period. The sector suffered a slight de- crease in activity between 2008 and 2010, as operators stalled projects due to the economic crisis. 2012 will mark the Þ rst year of growth after this period as conÞ dence returns to the market and operators drive delayed projects into the instal- lation phase. Future demand will be driven by developments in deeper waters. Oil majors have an urgent requirement to renew reserves to keep up with growing global demand for oil and gas and the largest prospects lie in deep water. IRM: Tasks carried out on offshore infrastructure below the water line in order to maintain production and ensure suitable HSE standards are met. Total demand for IRM vessel activity grew by 19% between 2007 and 2011 and expenditure reached $4.5bn in 2011 which represents nearly 28,000 vessel days. This continuing upward trend is being driven by the growing installed infrastructure base and is forecast to be worth $7.5bn by 2016. Subsea well intervention: Is an umbrella term for a number of distinct tasks which are designed to maintain structural integrity of wells or increase production. The use of intervention vessels will grow due to substantial cost savings over using rigs. From 2012 onwards the demand for riserless and rigless intervention vessels will increase dramatically. The vessel demand forecast over the period 2012-2016 is expected to total an estimated 23,000 days; an increase of over 130% compared to the previous Þ ve year period. This demand growth is driven by the realization of large cost savings possible through the use of intervention vessels and the subsequent increased adoption of the technol- ogy. Subsea Vessel Supply The last Þ ve years have seen an increase in the number of newbuilds entering the subsea vessel market. In the present build cycle subsea vessel numbers increased by over 70% and some types are now in oversupply, but availability of some others is extremely low. In some regions this is driving arti- Þ cially high vessel day rates and an operator preference for highly versatile multipurpose vessels capable of covering a range of work scopes. Vessel Contractor Competition The market for vessel contractors is highly fragmented. DW has identiÞ ed nearly 450 vessels from over 80 different con- tractors. While there has been some consolidation in the in- dustry with the Subsea7/Acergy merger, the vessel market is comprised of a signiÞ cant number of international vessel con- tractors and smaller regional players. The industry possesses high barriers to entry. New competitors face the challenges of the complex nature of project execution involved in offshore developments, the requirement for highly skilled employees and limited access to cheap newbuild Þ nancing options. Market Forecast DW forecast strong growth over the next Þ ve years with Subsea Vessel Operations Driven by Growth in Deep Water Developments and Increased Operator Con Þ denceBy Joseph Corrigan November/December 201222 MTRMTR #9 (18-33).indd 22MTR #9 (18-33).indd 2211/29/2012 10:59:46 AM11/29/2012 10:59:46 AM
